How Should China&’s Foreign Trade Respond To Weakening Foreign Demand?
As the crisis in Ukraine continues to ferment, unilateralism, rising protectionism and other factors, this year’s world economic and trade has a gloomy outlook, and the risk of recession will increase. According to the WTO, Global 2023 trade in goods is expected to grow by only 1 per cent, about 2.5 percentage points slower than in 2022. Trade to a large extent depends on the warm and cold of the international market, the weakening of foreign demand will inevitably impact on China’s foreign trade.
According to the latest figures from the general administration of customs, imports and exports totaled RMB6.18 TN in the first two months of the year, down 0.8 per cent from the same period a year earlier and sharply below the 13.3 per cent year-on-year growth rate in the same period last year. Exports rose 0.9 per cent year-on-year, while imports fell 2.9 per cent. In dollar terms, China’s exports and imports fell 8.3% in the first two months from a year earlier.
The 2023 of the Chinese government work report has made it clear that imports and exports should continue to support the economy. Analysts believe that from the recent official disclosure of information, the future stability of China’s foreign trade will be from three aspects.
One is to cultivate new “Blockbuster products”. China needs to find new sources of trade growth as export performance returns to normality for the commodities and “Housing economy” related products that underpinned a surge in Chinese exports during the pandemic. The highlight of China’s recent exports, according to official data, is the “New three” of cars, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products.
The second is to tap emerging markets. Trade between China and ASEAN has maintained a high growth rate of nearly 10 per cent in the past two months amid rising global economic and trade uncertainty, which is rare among China’s major trading partners and shows the strong trade complementarity between the two sides, the potential is huge.
Third, accelerate the development of new forms of trade, new models. During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce, digital trade on China’s foreign trade “Breakthrough” significantly, will continue to play an important role in the future.
